Currently, there is only one manufacturer in the world that can manufacture EUV lithography machines, and that is ASML.

Almost all chips below 7nm in the world are currently manufactured using EUV lithography machines, so EUV lithography machines represent the world's advanced chip technology.

Considering that EUV is actually upgraded generation after generation, driving the development of chip technology, if EUV lithography machines stop, the global chip technology may also stop.

Judging from the current situation, ASML's EUV lithography machine has no way forward and may be heading for a dead end.

The EUV lithography machine previously launched by ASML is a lithography machine with NA=0.33. NA stands for numerical aperture. The larger the numerical aperture, the more light enters, the greater the power, the higher the resolution, and the more advanced the manufactured chip.

The price of a NA=0.33 lithography machine is about 150 million US dollars per unit, and it is also the EUV lithography machine currently used by TSMC, Samsung, and Intel.

However, ASML believes that when it comes to 2nm, it should be replaced with another lithography machine, that is, a NA=0.55 lithography machine. The larger the NA, the higher the resolution, and it is easier to manufacture more advanced chips.

But this NA=0.5 lithography machine has a disadvantage, which is that it is expensive, and the price is as high as 400 million US dollars per unit.

So only 5 units have been sold so far. Anyway, TSMC said that it is not interested because it is too expensive. It plans to study the existing EUV and use the NA=0.33 EUV lithography machine as much as possible until 1.4nm. Replace it with a new one? TSMC said it is not cost-effective.

This is a huge blow to ASML. From NA=0.33 to NA=0.55, ASML has spent 10 years and hundreds of billions of dollars on research and development. In the end, if no one pays for it, the research and development will be wasted.

In ASML's plan, there is actually a Hyper NA EUV lithography machine with NA=0.75, but it is said that the price of this lithography machine may be as high as 800 million US dollars.

It is conceivable that who dares to pay for this lithography machine? After all, how many chips do you have to make to make back the cost at this price?

So now industry insiders believe that ASML's EUV lithography machine actually has no way to go ahead, and it is meaningless to continue to improve NA. ASML's direction is not to increase the numerical aperture, but to change to another lithography machine with a shorter wavelength, instead of sticking to the 13.5nm wavelength of light.

Because once the wavelength becomes shorter, the problems of NA and resolution are solved, and the scientific community is currently looking for suitable light sources with 6.7nm and 4.4nm wavelengths, but ASML is thinking about continuing to improve the numerical aperture based on the 13.5nm wavelength, and has not thought about changing the direction of research and development.

Of course, everything is just speculation now. Whether ASML is really in the wrong direction, or whether the 6.7nm and 4.4nm wavelength lithography machines are the way out in the future, can only be verified by time.