For the 2026 FIFA World Cup in Mexico City, the European Qualifiers will have 16 final tournament spots. The 12 teams that finish first in the World Cup Qualifiers group stage will advance directly to the World Cup. The 12 runners-up will compete in the European Qualifiers play-offs with the top four teams in the UEFA Nations League for the remaining four final tournament spots.
The four play-off spots from the UEFA Nations League will be given priority to the group winners of the four tiers (ABCD) of the UEFA Nations League. If these teams finish in the top two of their group in the World Cup Qualifiers, their spots will be deferred based on the overall UEFA Nations League standings.
UEFA Nations League playoff rankings:
- Group A winners: Spain, Germany, Portugal, France
- Group B winners: England, Norway, Wales, Czech Republic
- Group C winners: Romania, Sweden, North Macedonia, Northern Ireland
- Group D winners: Moldova, San Marino
After considering the group winners in each UEFA Nations League group, the spots will be allocated based on the overall UEFA Nations League standings, starting with the second-placed team in Group A, Italy, the Netherlands, Denmark, Croatia, Scotland, and so on. For example, if 11 of the 14 UEFA Nations League group winners advance to the top two of their group, then the four UEFA Nations League playoff spots will be allocated to Italy. If Italy also advances to the top two of its group, the spots will be allocated to the Netherlands, and so on.
Based on this scenario, Spain, Germany, Portugal, and France will not be eliminated directly even if they finish last in their UEFA World Cup qualifiers groups, as they have already secured their spots in the European qualifiers based on their UEFA Nations League results.
The top two teams in each group in the current European qualifiers are:
- Group A: Slovakia, Northern Ireland
- Group B: Switzerland, Kosovo
- Group C: Denmark, Scotland
- Group D: France, Iceland
- Group E: Spain, Georgia
- Group F: Portugal, Armenia
- Group G: Netherlands, Poland
- Group H: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Austria
- Group I: Norway, Italy
- Group J: North Macedonia, Belgium
- Group K: England, Albania
- Group L: Croatia, Czech Republic
Based on the current European qualifiers group stage results, the four UEFA Nations League play-off spots will be awarded to Germany, Wales, Romania, and Sweden. However, Germany, third in Group A, is tied with Northern Ireland on points and defeated them 3-1 in the first leg, making a top-two finish in the group.
San Marino, currently ranked 210th in the world, suffered five consecutive defeats in the group stage and has already been eliminated from the top two. However, they could also secure a playoff spot based on their UEFA Nations League rankings, giving them another chance to compete for a spot in the World Cup.
For Italy, failing to finish in the top two of their group would likely mean they would miss the World Cup. This is because their Nations League results didn't guarantee them a playoff spot, and they would need to rely on the performance of the 14 teams ahead of them, many of which may not even reach the top two of their group. Currently, Italy is second in Group I of the European Qualifiers, tied with third-placed Israel on nine points, having played one game less.
Rules for the European Qualifiers:
Sixteen teams will compete for four spots in the World Cup.
- The runners-up from the 12 European Qualifiers groups will be divided into pots 1-3 based on the world rankings. The four teams that qualified based on their UEFA Nations League results will be placed directly in pot 4.
- The teams will be drawn into four groups, each consisting of four teams from four different pots, and will play a single-elimination match. Semifinals: Pot 1 vs. Pot 4, Pot 2 vs. Pot 3. In the semifinals, the higher-placed team will play at home, while the final will be determined by a draw. The four winners of the four finals will advance to the 2026 World Cup.
- The semifinals and final of the play-offs will be held on March 26 and March 31, 2026, respectively.