US President Trump has made it clear for years that he wants to win the Nobel Peace Prize. Since returning to the White House in January, he has intensified his campaign, lobbying vigorously both publicly and behind the scenes.

"Everyone says I deserve the Nobel Peace Prize," he told the UN General Assembly in September. That same month, he declared that not awarding him the honor would be a "huge insult" to the United States.

This isn't the first time the Norwegian Nobel Committee, which independently selects the Peace Prize, has faced such pressure, although its decisions have caused trouble for Norway. If the committee announces a winner other than Trump on October 10, the United States could retaliate, perhaps in the form of tariffs on Norwegian goods or even targeting the country's $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund.

There are 338 nominees for the 2025 Peace Prize. While there are doubts about Trump's eligibility for the honor, data from Oddschecker indicates that as of October 7, his odds of winning were second on betting platforms. However, these odds may be unreliable, as the Nobel Peace Prize selection process is strictly confidential.

What is the Nobel Peace Prize?

It is one of five prizes established in the will of Alfred Bernhard Nobel, the Swedish inventor of dynamite. The other four awards recognize achievements in physics, chemistry, physiology or medicine, and literature. The Swedish Central Bank later established the Economics Prize in 1968 in Nobel's memory.

Nobel's will stipulated that the Peace Prize be awarded "for the greatest or best services to promote friendship among nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies, and for the convening and promotion of peace congresses."

Jean-Henri Dunant (1828-1910), Henry 1863

The first Nobel Peace Prize was awarded in 1901 to Jean-Henri Dunant, co-founder of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), for his work in assisting wounded soldiers, and to Frédéric Passy, ​​a French politician who dedicated his life to the international peace movement.

The prize can be shared by up to three people or awarded to a single organization. The same entity can receive the prize multiple times. For example, the ICRC received the prize in 1917, 1944, and 1963. Under the rules revised in 1974, deceased individuals cannot receive the prize unless they die after the final selection is announced but before the prize is actually awarded.

As of the end of last year, the Nobel Peace Prize had been awarded 105 times. There were 19 years without the prize being awarded, primarily during World Wars I and II. If the jury determines that no nominees meet the criteria, it may choose not to award the prize.

Who judges the prizes?

Nobel's will stipulated that the Peace Prize be decided by a five-member committee selected by the Norwegian Parliament, while other prizes would be awarded by Swedish institutions.

The reason Nobel chose Norway as the arbiter of the Peace Prize remains a mystery, even though Norway and Sweden remained a united kingdom during his lifetime and Norway became independent in 1905.

Members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee serve renewable six-year terms. To counter the perception that Norwegian politicians influence Nobel decisions, sitting members of parliament have been excluded from the committee since 1977.

Members of the committee are nominated by Norway's largest political parties to reflect the balance of power in the legislature and must be approved by a majority in parliament. The terms of at least two members will expire in 2026, meaning the committee's composition could change. One seat could potentially go to the populist Progress Party, which won approximately 24% of the vote in Norway's September general election.

How are the laureates determined?

Candidates can only be nominated by those who meet specific criteria and cannot nominate themselves. There is no limit on the number of years a nomination can be made. Eligible nominators include members of national parliaments or organizations such as the International Court of Justice, university professors, and past Nobel Peace Prize laureates.

After the nomination deadline, the Norwegian Nobel Committee narrows the list to a long list and asks official experts from the Nobel Institute to assist in reviewing the validity of the applications.

When the Committee nears its final list or needs additional information about a candidate or to verify facts, it consults international researchers and experts. The Committee's deliberations and the opinions of its advisors are subject to a 50-year confidentiality rule.

The Committee is usually able to reach a unanimous decision on the prize. However, when consensus cannot be reached, it votes by simple majority.

The Committee's choice is final and cannot be reviewed. The prize cannot be revoked.

Who are the famous laureates?

To date, there have been 142 Nobel Peace Prize laureates: 92 men, 19 women, and 28 organizations (including the International Committee of the Red Cross and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, which have been awarded more than once).

Malala Yousafzai is the youngest Nobel laureate in any category. In 2014, at the age of 17, she was awarded the Peace Prize for her advocacy for girls' education. She shared the prize with anti-child labor activist Kailash Satyarthi.

Former US President Barack Obama was awarded the Peace Prize in 2009, just months after taking office. He was honored for his support for a "nuclear-weapon-free world" and his "extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy." The decision was controversial, with some seeing it as a reward for aspirations rather than concrete action. Critics also pointed out that the US increased its troop deployment to Afghanistan and intensified drone strikes in Pakistan and other areas during Obama's presidency.

This isn't the only award to have been questioned. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won the 2019 Peace Prize after breaking the deadlock in a long-standing border dispute with neighboring Eritrea. But just 12 months later, he became embroiled in the civil war in his country's Tigray region, which has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, according to the Tigray War Project at Ghent University.

Trump's rationale?

Trump has long coveted a Nobel Peace Prize and complained that his dealmaking skills haven't been fairly recognized. "If my name were Obama, I'd have won the Nobel Prize in 10 seconds," he said last year.

Trump insists he has resolved "seven endless wars" since returning to the White House in January, including the armed conflict between India and Pakistan that broke out in May. But his peacemaking credentials are controversial. Some hostilities have been small-scale, others are ongoing or have long since ended, and there's no consensus on Trump's role and influence as a mediator.

One of those who nominated Trump for this year's peace prize is Republican Congresswoman Claudia Tenney of New York, citing the Abraham Accords, which he brokered during his first term as president. These agreements normalized diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab states in 2020.

While Tenney's proposal puts Trump in the nomination pool, it could be half a century before we know if he made the committee's consideration, unless the winner is announced on October 10th.

The push for Trump to take home the Nobel Peace Prize next year appears to have begun. Several foreign leaders have said they have nominated Trump for the prize, though they did so after the January 31 deadline for nominations for the 2025 prize. These include Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet. If Trump's Gaza peace plan succeeds or if he can persuade Russia to end its war in Ukraine, he has a good chance of winning the 2026 Peace Prize.

What does the laureate receive?

The laureate receives an 18-karat gold medal, a diploma, and a hefty check. This year's prize is 11 million Swedish kronor (US$1.2 million), the same amount awarded in 2023 and 2024.

The front and back of a replica of the Nobel Peace Prize medal on display in Oslo.

Nobel left the bulk of his estate—the largest in the world at the time—to establish the Nobel Prizes. His will stipulated that the funds, amounting to approximately 2.2 billion Swedish kronor in today's currency, be converted into a fund and invested in "safe securities." This task is carried out by the Nobel Foundation, with the interest used to pay the prize money. The laureates will be announced in October, and the Nobel Prize ceremony will be held at Oslo City Hall on December 10, the anniversary of Nobel's death.