Despite the current shutdown of the U.S. federal government, the release of key data cannot be halted. According to industry insiders, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) still plans to recall some employees to assist with the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The final release date of the CPI report, originally scheduled for October 15, is still unclear. However, according to the latest plan, it is expected to be released before the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting at the end of this month.
Since October 1, the BLS has suspended all operations due to a funding interruption, depriving economists and Federal Reserve policymakers of key data at a sensitive time for the economy. The government shutdown delayed the release of last week's highly anticipated monthly non-farm payroll report.
Before the BLS recalled some employees to compile the data, the CPI could have been the next major indicator to be affected.
The BLS's unusual decision to recall employees is reportedly partly related to the annual process for adjusting Social Security benefits based on changes in the cost of living. Federal law requires the Social Security Administration to publish its adjustment plan by November 1st.
However, this adjustment is based on third-quarter inflation data. Therefore, if there is a significant delay in the release of the September CPI, the Social Security Administration may not be able to complete the adjustment on schedule.
A government official, who was not authorized to speak publicly, stated that if the September CPI data is not collected and released by November 1st, the cost-of-living adjustment will be severely impacted.
Traditionally, the BLS collects price data throughout the entire CPI month, so the raw price data required for the report had already been collected before the government shutdown. However, this raw data still needs to be processed and analyzed. Historically, it has typically taken eight to ten business days to compile the complete report after data collection.
According to government sources familiar with the plan, the BLS currently plans to recall employees, including economists and information technology specialists. Given that data collection remains suspended this month, the release date of next month's October CPI report may also be delayed.
The U.S. Department of Labor's contingency plan released last month indicated that the Bureau of Labor Statistics would suspend all operations—including regular data releases—during the funding interruption. Initially, only the acting director was planned to remain in office.
However, Social Security benefits will continue to be paid as usual during the shutdown. According to another government official, the release of the September Consumer Price Index is crucial for the government to accurately pay benefits. The official said the recalled BLS staff will only handle the release of September inflation data.
The statistical agency is currently under the interim leadership of Acting Director William J. Wiatrowski. Wiatrowski took over the post after President Trump fired former BLS Director McEntuff in August. Trump initially nominated conservative economist E.J. Anthony to lead the agency, but the White House withdrew the nomination last month due to bipartisan criticism.
